> ## Documentation Index
> Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://docs.codex.io/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further.

# onPredictionTradesCreated

> Streams new prediction trades as they are ingested.

<Info>
  **Prediction Market data is currently in beta**. It is actively being worked on and improved, but may be unreliable. Polymarket and Kalshi data are live.
</Info>

<Info>
  **Kalshi has limited trade data**. When subscribing to Kalshi trades:

  * **No `traderId` filtering**: Individual trader information is not exposed
  * **No BUY/SELL distinction**: All trades show as `TRADE` type (no direction information)
  * **No trader identity**: The `maker` and `traderId` fields will be null or unavailable

  These limitations are due to privacy considerations on Kalshi's CFTC-regulated exchange.
</Info>

<div data-generated>
  ## GraphQL

  ```
  type Subscription {
    # Requires a Growth or Enterprise plan.
    onPredictionTradesCreated(
      input: OnPredictionTradesCreatedInput
    ): AddPredictionTradeOutput
  }

  enum PredictionProtocol {
    POLYMARKET
    KALSHI
  }

  enum PredictionTradeType {
    TRADE
    BUY
    SELL
    BUY_COUNTERPARTY
    SELL_COUNTERPARTY
    POSITION_REDEEMED
  }

  type PredictionResolution {
    result: String
    source: String
  }

  type PredictionSubSubcategory {
    name: String!
    slug: String!
  }

  type PredictionSubcategory {
    name: String!
    slug: String!
    subcategories: [PredictionSubSubcategory!]
  }

  type PredictionCategory {
    name: String!
    slug: String!
    subcategories: [PredictionSubcategory!]
  }

  enum PredictionMetadataType {
    SPORTS
  }

  type SportsTeam {
    abbreviation: String!
    altAbbreviations: [String!]
    name: String
    league: String
    logo: String
    alias: String
    color: String
    providerId: Int
    isHome: Boolean
  }

  enum SportsTimezone {
    UTC
  }

  type SportsMarketEnrichedMetadata {
    sportsMarketType: String
    league: String
    teams: [SportsTeam!]
    gameStartDate: String
    gameStartTime: String
    gameStartTimeSeconds: Int
    gameStartTimezone: SportsTimezone
  }

  type PredictionMarketEnrichedMetadata {
    metadataType: PredictionMetadataType!
    sports: SportsMarketEnrichedMetadata
  }

  type PredictionMarket {
    id: String!
    protocol: PredictionProtocol!
    venueMarketId: String!
    venueMarketSlug: String
    eventId: String
    venueEventId: String
    question: String
    label: String
    suggestedLabel: String
    eventLabel: String
    rules: String
    rules2: String
    venueOutcomeIds: [String!]!
    outcomeIds: [String!]!
    outcomeLabels: [String!]
    resolution: PredictionResolution
    imageLargeUrl: String
    imageThumbUrl: String
    imageSmallUrl: String
    createdAt: Int
    updatedAt: Int
    opensAt: Int
    closesAt: Int
    resolvesAt: Int
    resolvedAt: Int
    observedAt: Int!
    networkId: Int
    exchangeAddress: String
    categories: [PredictionCategory!]
    winningOutcomeId: String
    enrichedMetadata: PredictionMarketEnrichedMetadata
  }

  type PredictionTrade {
    marketId: String!
    sortKey: String!
    outcomeId: String!
    outcomeLabel: String!
    protocol: PredictionProtocol!
    tradeType: PredictionTradeType!
    maker: String
    timestamp: Int!
    outcomeIndex: Int
    priceUsd: String
    priceCollateral: String
    amount: String
    amountCollateral: String
    amountUsd: String
    transactionHash: String
    blockNumber: Int
    networkId: Int
    exchangeAddress: String
    transactionId: String
    predictionMarket: PredictionMarket
    traderId: String
  }

  type AddPredictionTradeOutput {
    marketId: String!
    eventId: String!
    trades: [PredictionTrade]!
  }

  input OnPredictionTradesCreatedInput {
    marketId: String
    eventId: String
    traderId: String
  }
  ```
</div>

## Subscription example

<a href="/explore" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Test this query in the Explorer →</a>

```graphql theme={null}
subscription {
  onPredictionTradesCreated(
    input: {
      marketId: "0x25aa90b3cd98305e849189b4e8b770fc77fe89bccb7cf9656468414e01145d38:Polymarket:0xc5d563a36ae78145c45a50134d48a1215220f80a:137"
      # Optional filters:
      # eventId: "67284:Polymarket:0xc5d563a36ae78145c45a50134d48a1215220f80a:137"
      # traderId: "0xa8702435199b2275b827ee5b88e78bb568a67a65:Polymarket"
    }
  ) {
    eventId
    trades {
      sortKey
      outcomeId
      outcomeLabel
      protocol
      tradeType
      maker
      timestamp
      outcomeIndex
      priceUsd
      priceCollateral
      amount
      amountCollateral
      amountUsd
      transactionHash
      blockNumber
      networkId
      exchangeAddress
      transactionId
      traderId
      predictionMarket {
        id
        protocol
        venueMarketId
        question
        label
        eventLabel
        outcomeLabels
        closesAt
        resolvesAt
      }
    }
  }
}
```

```json Example Response theme={null}
{
  "data": {
    "onPredictionTradesCreated": {
      "marketId": "0x25aa90b3cd98305e849189b4e8b770fc77fe89bccb7cf9656468414e01145d38:Polymarket:0xc5d563a36ae78145c45a50134d48a1215220f80a:137",
      "eventId": "67284:Polymarket:0xc5d563a36ae78145c45a50134d48a1215220f80a:137",
      "trades": [
        {
          "marketId": "0x25aa90b3cd98305e849189b4e8b770fc77fe89bccb7cf9656468414e01145d38:Polymarket:0xc5d563a36ae78145c45a50134d48a1215220f80a:137",
          "outcomeId": "111080671036126109659854287535401661966194360665829017654832975124868412594547:Polymarket:0xc5d563a36ae78145c45a50134d48a1215220f80a:137",
          "outcomeLabel": "No",
          "protocol": "POLYMARKET",
          "tradeType": "BUY",
          "maker": "0xa8702435199b2275b827ee5b88e78bb568a67a65",
          "timestamp": 1773355617,
          "outcomeIndex": 1,
          "priceUsd": "0.998860",
          "priceCollateral": "0.999",
          "amount": "54.004",
          "amountCollateral": "53.949996",
          "amountUsd": "53.942428",
          "transactionHash": "0x282415359cdc196306f87011fa080f11dc7dedd6a5ade65b369407244b66cec0",
          "blockNumber": 84117792,
          "networkId": 137,
          "exchangeAddress": "0xc5d563a36ae78145c45a50134d48a1215220f80a",
          "transactionId": null,
          "traderId": "0xa8702435199b2275b827ee5b88e78bb568a67a65:Polymarket",
          "predictionMarket": null
        }
      ]
    }
  }
}
```

### Usage Guidelines

* **ID formats**:
  * Market ID:
    * **Polymarket**: `<marketAddress>:Polymarket:<exchangeAddress>:<networkId>` (e.g., `0x25aa90b3cd98305e849189b4e8b770fc77fe89bccb7cf9656468414e01145d38:Polymarket:0xc5d563a36ae78145c45a50134d48a1215220f80a:137`)
    * **Kalshi**: `<marketSlug>:Kalshi` (e.g., `KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-S2026A4A05B370DF-F1FBA451AA9:Kalshi`)
  * Event ID varies by platform:
    * **Polymarket**: `<eventSlug>:Polymarket:<exchangeAddress>:<networkId>` (e.g., `67284:Polymarket:0xc5d563a36ae78145c45a50134d48a1215220f80a:137`)
    * **Kalshi**: `<eventSlug>:Kalshi` (e.g., `KXMVESPORTSMULTIGAMEEXTENDED-S2026350C4EF9BCE:Kalshi`)
  * Trader ID: **Polymarket only** - `<address>:Polymarket` (e.g., `0x02227b8f5a9636e895607edd3185ed6ee5598ff7:Polymarket`)
* Subscribe with optional filters: `marketId` (specific outcome), `eventId` (all outcomes in an event), or `traderId` (trades by a specific user - Polymarket only)
* Trades stream in real-time as they are ingested from prediction market venues
* `priceUsd` shows the probability price (0.00 to 1.00), while `amountUsd` shows the monetary value
* **Platform differences**: Polymarket shows `BUY`/`SELL` trade types, while Kalshi only shows `TRADE` type

### Troubleshooting Tips

<AccordionGroup>
  <Accordion title="What do the different tradeType values mean?">
    `BUY` means purchasing shares of an outcome, `SELL` means selling shares. `TRADE` is a generic trade without direction. `BUY_COUNTERPARTY` and `SELL_COUNTERPARTY` represent the opposite side of maker trades. `PAYOUT_REDEMPTION` indicates claiming winnings after resolution.
  </Accordion>

  <Accordion title="How do I calculate the trader's profit or loss?">
    For a resolved market, profit = (final outcome price - entry price) \* shares held. If the trader bought "Yes" at 0.65 and it resolved to 1.00, their profit is (1.00 - 0.65) \* shares. If it resolved to 0.00, their loss is 0.65 \* shares.
  </Accordion>

  <Accordion title="What's the relationship between amount, priceUsd, and amountUsd?">
    `amount` is the number of shares traded, `priceUsd` is the per-share price, and `amountUsd` is the total cost (`amount * priceUsd`). For example, buying 1000 shares at 0.65 per share costs \$650 USD.
  </Accordion>

  <Accordion title="Why do some trades have null values for certain fields?">
    Older trades or trades from certain venues may be missing data like `transactionHash`, `blockNumber`, or `traderId`. This depends on what data the prediction market protocol provides. Always check for null before using these fields.
  </Accordion>

  <Accordion title="How do I build a real-time order book from this subscription?">
    This subscription provides executed trades (fills), not pending orders. To build an order book, you need to track the current state of liquidity using [`onPredictionMarketBarsUpdated`](/api-reference/subscriptions/onpredictionmarketbarsupdated) or query market depth through the prediction venue's native API. Use trade data to show trade history and recent activity.
  </Accordion>
</AccordionGroup>